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Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".
Fellow idiots, I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse. TL;DR at the bottom. Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too. Point 2:The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them. Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10. Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth.. Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point. Point 6:Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment. Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too. Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point. Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now? Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment. Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid. TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing. Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
US treasuries still have room to run (before the autists say that's not yolo enough you could trade OTM calls on UST-linked ETFs, US govvie futures for gainz)
Sell SPX companies with big supply chain exposure and heavy cost of capital, buy their competitors without these features.
Open up apparel factories in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and sell to the US.
Buy soybeans assuming farmers get a bailout from US
I am sure there are plenty of China based ETFs which could be played, DYOR.
Short any US listed company with mainland China domicile. If shit REALLY hits the fan between US/China, there are levers that US Govt. can pull to fuck them.
Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png) Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below: !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png) Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
Most targets, except for USDJPY due to it's correlation to SPX/SPY and DJI, are bullish. I saw several small gap downs in futures which represent a strong opening for the USD. USDCAD is looking to tear. AUDUSD is potentially breaking a huge support line at .7800. You aren't getting 100% guidance because that doesn't exist in FX. It's anebvulous message. There is likely other factors too:
Fear that the market still needs to fill the gaps in it's shitty structure that was built during that insane Christmas/Post-Christmas bull charge
Fear of the new Fed Chair: who is he? What is he like? Another dove like Yellen, unpredictable like Bernanke?
Fear that the Fed may not have as much power as they say they do? So much wealth has been generated within private sector that it is becoming apparent that the Fed doesn't have as much leverage as it used to: private money is capable of dictating market courses sometimes now.
Daytraders discussion, ideas and strategy sharing (TA+FA)
TA that I use constantly and find working for a bit over a year:
fibo retrace (when bigger picture doesn't change)
psychological levels (1.20 mark, round numbers)
supply and demand levels (you gotta get used to them, but they are decent)
FA principles that I constantly use and find immensely useful to always keep in mind:
central bank policy and what they are watching for at the moment
current rates for what the currencies you are following
the different inflations what the currencies you are following (vanila and core cpi/pce for the $USD)
general growth trends (jobs, housing etc. for $USD)
a forex calendar, and a basic understand of each data point
forex live or similar websites
Trading techniques and strategies: I used to sell EURUSD at retracements due to high central bank policy divergence, good USA data and pretty bad Euro Zone data. Used a high SL because of high conviction and never actually had a losing day. After the holiday I will be starting to trade once again. I was thinking about simply looking for decent conviction trades and just take em all with a 1:1 risk:reward ratio and see how it goes in a day trader's time frame (intra day). Both FA and TA traders and mutts like myself and every type of trader are welcome to share and give constructive criticism to any idea or strategy or just share your strategy! EDIT: Here are a few free websites that I use: Calendars:
investing: http://www.investing.com/economic-calenda -Different format, includes more data points but misses some meetings. Displays importance grading. Forecasts are usually more on point than FF's. Also contains historic data points.
Forex live: best for last! The news are released and updated fairly real time, during big releases they come out with the story+analyzed story within minutes. It's a realtime feed so you won't be refreshing the page to get updated.
http://orders.forexlive.com/ -Where you can expect to find orders and option expiry. They don't tell you how much money there is at certain levels, but for a free, account free website, it's pretty good.
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast| Global stock market selloff contributed to US Dollar strength
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast
The GBP/USD is trading little modified above 1.2800 after falling to the 7-week low of 1.2777 on a combination of Brexit uncertainty and danger-off sentiment.
The rumors of deep department inside Theresa may additionally’s cabinet and Brexit negotiating team surfaced.
at the same time as the bank of England Inflation file is about to voice Brexit uncertainty as a key threat to the economic and financial coverage outlook, the united states hard work market is about to flex its muscle.
The FxStreet Forecast ballot GBP/USD turned much less bullish for the 1-month and three-month time.
Without a critical fundamental news scheduled for the United Kingdom at some stage in the fourth week of October, it became the Brexit related uncertainty that drove Sterling decrease, particularly after the almighty British media said that the UK high Minister Theresa may also is losing manage over her personal cupboard as the division amongst her team participants rose. Any other element helping the USA greenback and different safe-haven currencies during the fourth week of October turned into the equity market selloff with robust and volatile actions of 2%-3% up and down. The equity marketplace volatility did not make bigger in terms of length, but it has sent a shock wave across the globe and noticed the typical secure-haven currencies like US dollar and Japanese Yen rising. The GBP/USD is moving in a downward sloping trend framed by ultimate week’s excessive of 1.3238 and Monday’s excessive of one.3091. After falling sharply on Monday toward 1.2940, the GBP/USD recovered on Brexit optimism on Tuesday simply to fall lower back to October lows on Wednesday and fell further down on Thursday and Friday. The technical oscillators consisting of Momentum and the Relative energy Index both grew to become higher in the impartial territory on a day by day chart. The gradual Stochastic made a flow deeply into the bullish territory with swing upwards being the maximum probably move. After the GBP/USD fell beyond price goal of 1.2920 and fell beneath 1.2800 to reach a 7 week low, the strain on falling in addition towards 2018 low of one.2662 will mount.
The economic event next week
The UK Economic features the headline of the beginning of November in the Bank of England November Inflation Report due next Thursday. The Bank of England is not expected to either change the Bank rate or to twist the asset purchasing program. It is expected to repeatedly voice their concern about the Brexit uncertainty as both the European Union and the United Kingdom are still far from reaching the final Brexit agreement although there has been a significant progress on a wide range of issues in the Brexit negotiations. If you want some more info about Forex market Please contact on my whats app +91-9630405825.....and email also [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) https://preview.redd.it/ezj0hzhzfpu11.jpg?width=1157&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c01edb559916d8eeb8bcd3529c01e3e43f74c523
Lykke is building a global marketplace for the free exchange of financial assets. By leveraging the power of emerging technology, our platform eliminates market inefficiencies, promotes equal access from anywhere in the world, and supports the trade of any object of value. The Lykke Exchange is fast and secure. Users receive direct ownership of assets with immediate settlement from any mobile device. You can try Lykke Wallet, available for both iOS / Android. Here’s a quick video to get you started.
What is Blockchain Technology?
The Lykke marketplace uses the distributed ledger, which is blockchain technology pioneered by Bitcoin. This technology incorporates a protocol for decentralized data storage in the chain of blocks, where the consistency of the data is guaranteed by the cryptography and consensus of multiple nodes.
What are LKK coins?
A Lykke coin (LKK) is a cryptographic token that represents ownership of Lykke, a Swiss registered corporation. There is no mining and currently it's not listed on other exchanges (although that may change). 100 LKK represent 1 share of Lykke Corp. Read more at our Information Memorandum
Lykke Blog - Recent developments, analysis and other articles
Most Frequently Asked Questions
How does LKK1Y works?
Lykke 1-year forward coin (LKK1Y) is essentially a derivative on LKK. Buyer of 1 LKK1Y can purchase the right to receive 1 LKK in 365 days after they ask for the delivery. In other words, there is no fixed maturity date: if you buy a Lykke forward contract, you can execute it at any date and after 1 year passes the Lykke coins will be delivered. You can read more at What is Lykke Forward? blog post.
How does Lykke earn money?
Commissions are zero, so Lykke earns revenue from value-add services such as liquidity provision, issuance services, white-labeling, and B2B consulting.
If I own Lykke coins, am I considered to be a shareholder of Lykke Corp?
Yes. If you own Lykke coins, you are entitled to become shareholders of Lykke Corp, provided that you submit to our minimum KYC requirements. Shareholders have additional rights, such as voting and receiving dividends.
Will LKK coins pay dividends?
Yes. They will when the company decides to pay profits to investors, rather than re-invest to fuel growth. As with most startups, dividends may be some time away.
Are there plans to list LKK in other exchanges?
Yes, the roadmap currently states it’s a medium term goal.
How does Lykke differ from other crypto ventures?
Lykke is not a cryptocurrency or distributed ledger technology venture; we are building a marketplace that integrates seamlessly with the existing financial system. Our trading venue uses a matching engine to cross buy and sell orders. The accounting, delivery, and settlement of traded assets use distributed ledger technology. Our initial focus is the foreign exchange market with a daily transaction volume of 4 trillion USD, the biggest financial market in the world.
I am a US citizen and can't download the App. When will Lykke be available in my country?
Hopefully soon, this is only temporary as Lykke requires licenses to be fully compliant in many countries. It’s currently not available in Australia, Japan, Canada and the US (which greatly differs from other countries as states have different laws). At first only some states would be available (or only certain assets could be tradeable) but eventually with more blockchain technology acceptance and adoption more should follow.
Is Lykke Exchange only available on mobile?
Currently yes, however a web trading platform is being developed and part of the medium term roadmap.
I'm sure we've all used or still using websites that helps in our trading decisions, because after all, a second confirmation is always great! If you're unfamiliar with what i'm referring to: It's basically a website that has their own technical and fundamental analysts staff that analyzes the market and gives you their own input. Here's mine so far: -Dailyfx.com -Fxstreet.com -Forex.com My favorite is definitely www.dailyfx.com since their trading style is pretty much like mine (Ilya specifically). www.fxstreet.com isn't that bad, I guess. And www.forex.com, i don't find that it gives enough opinions or at least time worthy opinions. EDIT: I think people are a bit confused as to how one uses these type of website. You're NOT suppose to follow their trades 100% of the way. You're suppose to use them as another opinion or notification of things that you may have overlooked. It doesn't hurt to have another point of view. The last thing you want to do is listen to someone blindly. Think of it as education.
ECN. Used most by professional traders. Difficult platform for beginners
Minimum deposit $10000 (or $3,000 if under 25yo) * Well diversified -Oanda
Market maker. Second largest retail FX brokerage in the US. Easy platform for beginners.
No minimum deposit
Not well diversified, but well capitalized -Gain Capital (whitelabel forex.com) *Market Maker *Fair spreads *Minimum deposit $250 *Well diversified -FXCM Inc
ECN. Largest retail FX brokerage in the US
Minimum deposit $2000
Not well diversified. CAUTION: FXCM nearly went bankrupt in Jan-2015 due to a lack of diversification and low capitalisation. As a result FXCM LLC was bailed out with a large loan which may prove difficult to pay back. Be warned that their business may not be sustainable in the long term. -MBTrading
ECN. Mid-sized retail FX brokerage
Minimum deposit $400
International Only- -LMAX (whitelabel DarwinEx) *DMA broker based in the UK. Note that as a DMA broker LMAX eliminates the ability for LPs to last-look transactions. This may result in reduced liquidity during volatile times as liquidity providers would be likely not to risk posting liquidity to LMAX's pool. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $10,000 *Fairly well diversified -Dukascopy *ECN based in Switzerland, but available elsewhere depending on local regulations. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $100 *Fairly well diversified -IC Markets *ECN based in Australia *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Fairly well diversified -Pepperstone *ECN broker based in Australia. *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Not well diversified Software / Apps: Desktop/mobile
Apps are typically broker dependent. Some brokers have their own proprietary software, while others lease common software like Metatrader or NinjaTrader. Some software has a large development community for indicators and EAs.
Terminology/Acronyms: www.forexlive.com/ForexJargon - Common terms and acronyms FAQ: I need to exchange money, how do I do it? This isn’t what this sub is for. Your best bet is using your bank or an online exchange service. Be prepared to pay a hefty fee. I have money in one currency and need to exchange it into another sometime in the future, should I wait? Don’t ask us this. We speculate intraday in FX and shouldn’t be relied on to tell you what’s best for you. Exchange the money when you need it. I have an FX account, should I start trading demo or live? This is highly debatable. You should definitely demo trade until you have mastered how to use the trading platform on desktop and mobile. After that it’s up to you. Many think that the psychology of trading live vs demo trading is massively different. So it may pay to learn to trade live. Just be warned that most FX traders lose almost their entire first account so start with a low affordable balance. What’s money management? Money management is a form of risk management and is arguably the most important aspect of your trading when it comes to long term survival. You should always enter trades with a stop loss - the distance of the stop allows you to calculate how large of a percent of your account balance will be lost if your trade stops out. You can run a monte carlo simulation to figure out the risk of having a number of trades go against you in a row to drain your account. The general rule is that you should only risk losing 1-4% of your account per trade entered. More on this here: www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/fxmoneymgmt.asp www.swing-trade-stocks.com/money-management.html What about automated trading? Retail FX traders have been known to program “Expert Advisors” (EAs) to automate trading. It’s generally advisable to stay away from that until you’re very experienced. Never buy an EA from a developer because the vast majority of them are scams. What indicators are best? That’s up to you to test and find out. Many in this forum dislike oscillating indicators since they fail to capture the essence of what moves price. With experience you will discover what works best for you. In my experience indicators that are most popular with professional traders are those that provide trading “levels” such as pivot points, fibonacci, moving averages, trendlines, etc. What timeframe should I trade? Price action can vary in different timeframes. In longer term timeframes the price action and fundamentals are much more clear. Unfortunately it would take a very long time to figure out whether or not what you’re doing is successful on longer timeframes. In shorter timeframes you can often tell very quickly if what you’re doing is profitable. Unfortunately there’s a lot more “noise” on these levels which can prove deceptive for those trying to learn. Therefore the best bet is to use a multi-timeframe analysis, working from top-down to come up with trades. Should I trade using fundamental analysis (FA) of technical analysis (TA)? This is a long standing argument in these forums and elsewhere. I’ll settle it here - you should have an understanding of both. Yes there are traders who blindly ignore one of the other but a truly well rounded trader should understand and implement both into the analysis. The market is driven in the longer term through FA. But TA is necessary to give traders a place to enter and exit trades from a psychological risk/reward standpoint. I’ve heard trading Binary Options is an easy way to make money? The general advice is to stay away from binaries. The structure of binary options is so that when you lose the broker wins. This incentive has created a very scammy industry where there are few legitimate binary options brokers. In addition in order to be profitable in binaries you have to win 55-65% of the time. That’s a much higher premium over spot FX. Am I actually exchanging currencies? Yes and no. Your broker handles spot FX is currency pairs. Although they make an exchange at the settlement date they treat your position in your account as a virtual currency pair. Think of it like a contract where you can only buy or sell it as a pair. In this sense you are always long one currency while short another. You are merely speculating that one currency will appreciate or depreciate vs another. Why didn't my order fill? Even if price appears to cross over a line on your chart it does not guarantee a fill. Different charting platforms chart different prices - some chart the bid price, some the ask price and some the midpoint price. To fill a limit order price needs to cross your limit's price plus the spread at the time that it is crossing. If it does not equal or exceed the spread then it will not fill. Be wary that in general spreads are not fixed. So what may fill at one time may not at another.
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