Biden's advisors: Georgia is still a possibility

Dollar is set back by euphoria. Forecast as of 09.11.2020

Dollar is set back by euphoria. Forecast as of 09.11.2020
Investors continue trading the idea of Joe Biden becoming the president. That is why the S&P 500 features the best weekly rise since April and pushes the EURUSD up. How long will it continue? Let us discuss the Forex outlook and make up a EURUSD trading plan.

Weekly US dollar fundamental analysis

Euphoria rules the market. Investors forgot about both COVID-19, the US fiscal stimulus's unsettled issue, and Donald Trump rejecting the voting results. Traders are satisfied with the less uncertainty around Joe Biden’s policy, hoping for lower volatility. Analysts suggest that the divided Congress won’t allow Biden to carry out radical reforms in tightening taxation and regulation of technology companies. As a result, the S&P 500 grew by 7.3% in the first week of November, and the USD dropped to the lowest level since early September.
How long will the euphoria last? History proves that starting from 2000, if the S&P 500 was growing on election day, it continued growing in November and December. The first years of presidential terms were also favorable for the US stock indexes. The S&P 500 grew by 18.6% on average. However, the stock indexes’ trends during the time of the divided Congress, which prevented the White House from carrying out radical reforms, were controversial. During 45 years, starting from 1928, when one party controlled the US government, the stock market rose at an average rate of 7.46% annually, up from 7.26% in 46 years when the power was divided.

Reaction of S&P 500 to the political situation in USA

Source: Wall Street Journal
In my opinion, the markets are going too fast. Investors want to join the stock market’s uptrend, forgetting about the negative. However, are some negative factors that should have their effect. First, political uncertainty continues. Donald Trump is challenging the election results. Because of the second round of voting in Georgia, we will know the partisan makeup of the U.S. Senate only on January 5. It creates obstacles to the agreement on the new fiscal stimulus. Until a fresh stimulus is provided, the US economy will be slowing down, which presses down both the global GDP and the risk appetite.
Second, the coronavirus vaccines haven’t yet been developed, and the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the USA and in the euro area. The numbers of new coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are hitting all-time highs, so investors’ optimism is surprising. The epidemiological situation in Europe is deteriorating. France, Germany, and other countries are locked down. This fact suggests that the divergence in the economic growth and monetary policy is in favor of the EURUSD bears.
Finally, the U.S. dollar may not be falling amid the growth of the S&P 500. The negative correlation between stocks and the USD is the strongest at the time of uncertainty, also because of the US presidential election. Once uncertainty eases, the negative correlation should stop working.

Weekly EURUSD trading plan

Euphoria rules the market, but it can’t last for long. If the EURUSD bulls fail to hold the price above 1.188, the pair should roll down to 1.183 and 1.1785. Otherwise, if the resistance is held up, the euro could continue the rally up to $1.195-$1.196 and even $1.2. Next, large traders should take some profits and exit the longs.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex

submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Russia, Ukraine, and Forex Trading

Adapted from my blog. Original post May 2, 2014.
One of the biggest advantages of trading forex is that global political events often turn themselves into excellent market opportunities. Take, for instance, the turmoil in Ukraine. As the instability in that region grows, and capital flows out of Russia seeking safer havens, such opportunities are on the horizon. If you’re not familiar with what has been happening there, here’s a brief rundown of the past few months.
Putin Outplays the West
February 22nd- Ukranian President Viktor Yanyukovich is removed from office and flees the country.
March 21st- Following weeks of protests for secession, Russia annexes the ethnically Russian Ukranian region of Crimea. The US immediately sanctions several prominent Russian politicians and business leaders.
April 4th(ish)- Russia masses 40,000 troops on Ukraine’s Eastern border.
April 25th- Russia raises the ruble’s interest rate to 7.5%.
May 2nd- Ukrainian army forces clash with pro-Russian separatists in the Eastern cities of Odessa and Slovyansk.
What Happens Next?
Amid all the sabre-rattling and mindless media coverage, one can discern a pattern to Russia’s behavior in Ukraine that has been used recently in other conflicts. In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia and all but annexed the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossettia. Putin then employed a similar strategy of fostering political unrest before invading the region to ‘liberate’ ethnic Russian populations, and repeated the process in Crimea. It stands to reason he will do so again in Ukraine’s industrial, and Russian speaking east.
This is assuming Putin doesn’t fear the threat of economically damaging and sweeping sanctions from the West. After all, Russia’s largest exports – oil and natural gas – have willing buyers in India and China, if not Eastern Europe. Putin has been in power for 14 years in Russia – long enough to turn his gaze beyond domestic squabbling and toward a more global stage, and the short term pain these sanctions would cause may not be enough to deter his advance.
So Where Is the Trade?
There are two outcomes I see as likely. Both offer excellent trades in the near future.
1) Russia invades Ukraine, or continues to support pro-separatist rebels in the east. This prompts expansive Western sanctions on May 25th and the ruble continues its decline. Investors will flock to more stable, high-yielding currencies like the NZD and to a lesser extent the TRY (whose issues will pale in comparison to the ruble), providing extended carry-trade opportunities for speculators.
2) Russia somehow avoids Western sanctions and looks to attract foreign investment once more with the ruble’s tasty 7.5% interest rate. Short USD/RUB will become an attractive mid-term trade as the ruble bounces back from its long decline of early this year.
Either way, opportunity is on the horizon! We will certainly be keeping an eye on the events in Ukraine to determine where best to invest our capital, and will keep you updated on the blog and twitter as the situation unfolds.
Agree with my analysis? Disagree? Let's hear it, forex!
submitted by PoseidonFX to Forex [link] [comments]

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