USD/RUB - Live Rate, Forecast, News and Analysis

The sanctions paradox, With Russia's energy exports denominated in USD and their state budget in RUB help me understand how sanctions are really going to have any effect on their government reddit.

I do a bit of forex trading in my spare time as a hobby and after trying to figure out have we hit the bottom on the rouble yet I was left thinking things can't really get to bad for the Russian state budget and it's really only their citizens that are going to be left feeling the pinch, Just hear me out and fell free to correct my thesis.
So anyway Russia typically prices it's oil and gas contracts in USD thanks to the current "petrodollar" standard in energy contracts. The vast majority of their income comes through energy exports and they get paid in USD.
They can now get 46 roubles for every dollar of oil sold compared to this time last year as a result of the 36% year on year decline in the value of RUB vs USD which means their many of their obligations and public sector wages also declined 36%.
In other words this is going to screw ordinary Russian worker but the declining rouble is going to have little to no effect on the Russian government's ability to balance the books and ironically makes it easier for them to pay pensions/benefits/public sector wages
Now the one thing that is going to hurt them in the short term is the decline in oil prices since 40% of their exports are crude oil but Russia has been running a huge trade surplus in recent years and even with sanctions and lower oil prices this continues to be the case presently.
Oct 10, 2014
Russia’s trade surplus widened in August as President Vladimir Putin banned food imports from the U.S. and some of its allies.
The surplus was $15.8 billion, up 12 percent from a year earlier, the central bank in Moscow said today on its website. The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was $16.1 billion. Imports decreased 12 percent to $25.1 billion and exports fell 3.7 percent to $40.9 billion.
Thing is when it comes to a trade war cash is king and Russia seems to have no problem covering it's obligations as regards imports. Compare that to Ukraine on the other hand who's declining currency and increasing trade defect mean it needs foreign aid just to pay for the day to day goods it's importing.
In short I cant find any credible economic threat that the west poses to Russia that doesn't come back to bite them in the ass themselves, lower oil prices are going to have a blowback effect on Us shale and Canadian tar sands production of which many require $80 a barrel prices just to be profitable.
Anyway I hope you appreciate my analysis, I did this mainly for myself as I opened a short position on the rouble back in March when the central bank was still intervening to support the price but now that it's stopped and the rouble has been allowed to float I'm pretty much going to close my position unless there is something I'm seriously overlooking here.
submitted by Ididpotato to UkrainianConflict [link] [comments]

Цена на нефть, золото XAUUSD, курс доллар рубль USD/RUB. Форекс прогноз на 18 - 19 июня 11.03.2020: Saudis put pressure on Russia (BRENT, USD/RUB) USD/RUB прогноз курса доллара на 15 мая 2020 Курс Доллара прогноз Trade on Forex options. 23/03/2016. USD/RUB 19 Обзор-21.05.20 RTS,BR,EUR,GOLD,USD/RUB,SBER,GAZP,ES,YM,CL,GC,BTC,CRYPTO COINS How long RUB to decline against USD? Технический анализ EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD, BRENT на 05.04.2017 Russian Ruble Exchange Rate 25.01.2019 ...  Currencies and banking topics #42 15.06.2020: Traders fear second wave of COVID-19, oil and RUB come under pressure (Brent, USD/RUB) Forex Copy

USD RUB (US Dollar / Russian Ruble) The US Dollar vs. the Russian Ruble pair is representing the two contradicting and rival economies and political systems in the world. This pair is very sensitive to the crude oil volatility as the Russian economy depends on the petroleum market greatly. The US Dollar, which is the most traded currency in the world, is considered to be very stable and safe ... USD/RUB Forecast Russian Ruble March 12, 2020 implies an attempt to test the support level near the area of 70.25. Where can we expect a rebound and continued growth of the Dollar against the Ruble with a target above the level of 76.40. An additional signal in favor of raising the pair will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the growth option ... Get the latest market forecasts on the US Dollar - Russian Ruble pair, including the live USD/RUB rate, news, in depth analysis and outlook. Current exchange rates of major world currencies. Find updated foreign currency values, a currency converter and info for foreign currency trading. Get latest market information about USD/RUB pair including USD RUB Live Rate, News, US Dollar and Russian Ruble Forecast and Analysis. At we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of Forex currency pairs like USD/RUB. If you are looking for Forex pairs with good return, USDRUB can be a profitable investment option. USD/RUB rate equal to 77.176 at 2020-11-13 (today's range: 77.109 - 77.176). Based on our forecasts, a long-term ... Current exchange rate US DOLLAR (USD) to RUSSIAN RUBLE (RUB) including currency converter, buying & selling rate and historical conversion chart.

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Цена на нефть, золото XAUUSD, курс доллар рубль USD/RUB. Форекс прогноз на 18 - 19 июня

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